I. Introduction In recent weeks, attention has turned to an unlikely potential crisis: a shortage of toilet paper in the United States. While the pandemic once brought memories of empty store shelves and panic buying, a new threat looms on the horizon—one tied not to consumer behavior but to international trade policy.
According to Bloomberg News, President Donald Trump’s plan to raise tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber may inadvertently disrupt the production of one of our most essential commodities: toilet paper. This article provides a detailed exploration of how an increase in tariffs—from the current 14% to as high as 27% or even over 50%—on Canadian lumber could impact the supply of northern bleached softwood kraft pulp (NBSK), the key raw material used in the manufacture of toilet paper and paper towels. We examine the economic and industrial ramifications of higher import duties, discuss how a reduced supply of pulp might force paper mills to cut production, and analyze the broader implications for consumers and the economy.